http://www.jenningsfuturestrader.com/ jenningsfuturestrader.com Blog en 14/03/2013 7:09:00 AM http://www.jenningsfuturestrader.com/blog/will-gold-lead-everything-else-down- http://www.jenningsfuturestrader.com/blog/will-gold-lead-everything-else-down- The underlying story for gold is not at all good. The big move in gold, the 12-year bull market, was underpinned first of all by general commodity bullishness and then by the mistaken belief that the U.S. Federal Reserve unconventional monetary programs were going to cause an inflation spike and hyperinflation in the U.S. and elsewhere. Even with soft data in recent weeks in the U.S. the recovery is intact and although patchy growth trends are emerging. Citigroup predicted that 2013 would be the year that “death bells ring” for the commodity super-cycle.  During the... Thu, 18 Apr 2013 12:00:00 +1000 http://www.jenningsfuturestrader.com/blog/update---22-march-2013 http://www.jenningsfuturestrader.com/blog/update---22-march-2013 No method of picking winning trades is faultless. Of the two popular methods used, fundamental or technical analysis, the expectations on technical analysis are impossibly high. The name ‘technical analysis’ implies a sophisticated level of analysis, even scientific, yet technical analysis is not sophisticated. A better description of technical analysis is ‘charting’ and technical analysts are better referred to as ‘chartists’. We now use the term “quantitative analysis” and ‘quants’, further elevating the level of expectation.... Fri, 22 Mar 2013 09:10:00 +1000 http://www.jenningsfuturestrader.com/blog/update---14-march-2013 http://www.jenningsfuturestrader.com/blog/update---14-march-2013 Australian 3-year bond yields have nearly crossed over the RBA cash rate. Bond traders are telling us they expect 3-year rates to be about the same in three years’ time and they are not factoring any more rate cuts by the RBA. This suggests there is upside risk for interest rates and downside risk for bonds.  Our rate of change model does not suggest it is time to give up equity holdings however if bond yields start to rise above normal parameters equity markets are likely to underperform other assets. We hold the view that America will lead the rest of the world out of... Thu, 14 Mar 2013 07:09:00 +1000